{"id":165,"date":"2017-09-01T10:09:16","date_gmt":"2017-09-01T09:09:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/?page_id=165"},"modified":"2018-03-05T10:41:48","modified_gmt":"2018-03-05T10:41:48","slug":"what-are-monsoons","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/zh\/education\/what-are-monsoons\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u5b63\u98ce?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-185 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/monsoons_picture-300x199.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"481\" height=\"319\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/monsoons_picture-300x199.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/monsoons_picture.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 481px) 100vw, 481px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u4e2d\u5b63\u98ce\u8fd9\u4e2a\u540d\u8bcd\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u4e8e\u70ed\u5e26\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5904\u5728\u70ed\u5e26\u548c\u4e9a\u70ed\u5e26\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d7\u5b63\u98ce\u5b63\u8282\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u5f71\u54cd\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bef\u89e3\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b63\u98ce\u603b\u662f\u548c\u5267\u70c8\u800c\u53c8\u7a81\u5982\u5176\u6765\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b63\u98ce\u6307\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5168\u5e74\u6216\u5168\u5e74\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u964d\u6c34\u96c6\u4e2d\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\uff08\u6709\u65f6\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\uff09\u5b63\u8282\u5185\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0e\u4ee5\u524d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7684\u98ce\u5411\u9006\u8f6c\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u540e\u9762\u4f1a\u63d0\u5230\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fc7\u4e86\u5b63\u98ce\u5b63\u8282\uff0c\u964d\u96e8\u5c06\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u5e72\u71e5\u3002\u5b63\u98ce\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u8bed\u201cmausim\u201d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5b63\u8282\u7684\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5b63\u98ce\u6027\u964d\u96e8\u6709\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5728\u70ed\u5e26\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u572821\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u4e9a\u6d32\u5b63\u98ce\u548c\u897f\u975e\u5b63\u98ce\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u964d\u6c34\u662f\u589e\u52a0\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u590f\u5b63\u5317\u90e8Sahel\u5730\u533a\u5219\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u7684(Cook and Vizy, 2006)\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u4eba\u4eec\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bef\u89e3\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b63\u98ce\u5b63\u8282\u53ea\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5317\u534a\u7403\uff086-9\u6708\uff09\u548c\u5357\u534a\u7403\uff0811-2\u6708\uff09\u7684\u590f\u5b63\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\u5b63\u98ce\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u51ac\u5b63\u98ce\uff0c\u51ac\u5b63\u98ce\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5730\u533a\u4e0e\u590f\u5b63\u98ce\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-188 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/monsoon_summer_winter_regions-300x144.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"692\" height=\"332\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/monsoon_summer_winter_regions-300x144.png 300w, https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/monsoon_summer_winter_regions-768x368.png 768w, https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/monsoon_summer_winter_regions-1024x491.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/monsoon_summer_winter_regions.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 692px) 100vw, 692px\" \/><\/h6>\n<p><strong>\u56fe<\/strong><strong>1<\/strong><strong>\uff1a\u5728\u5b63\u98ce\u5b63\u8282\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u964d\u6c34\u5360\u5168\u5e74\u81f3\u5c11<\/strong><strong>70%<\/strong><strong>\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002\u63cf\u7ed8\u5b63\u98ce\u5f71\u54cd\u533a\u57df\u7684\u793a\u610f\u56fe\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\uff0c\u5c1a\u672a\u6709\u5b9a\u8bba\uff0c\u8be5\u56fe\u4e3a\u5176\u4e00\u3002\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea<\/strong><strong>GPCP<\/strong><strong>\u7248\u672c<\/strong><strong>2.5<\/strong><strong>\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u81ea<\/strong><strong>1970-2008<\/strong><strong>\uff0c\u7531<\/strong><strong>P.Dirmeyer<\/strong><strong>\u63d0\u4f9b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u8003\u8651\u5357\u7f8e\u6d32\uff0c\u5e76\u628a\u5b63\u98ce\u5b9a\u4e49\u6210\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7684\u98ce\u5411\u9006\u8f6c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5357\u7f8e\u6d32\u7684\u5b63\u98ce\u5c06\u4e0d\u590d\u5b58\u5728\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5357\u7f8e\u6d32\u7684\u5b63\u98ce\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5b63\u98ce\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e2d\u7684\u590f\u51ac\u5b63\u7684\u98ce\u5411\u9006\u8f6c\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5728\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u8fd9\u79cd\u5178\u578b\u53d7\u5b63\u98ce\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7684\u73af\u6d41\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u5982\u98ce\u5411\u9006\u8f6c\uff09\u4ecd\u662f\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4e9a\u6d32\u7684\u5b63\u98ce\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0e\u5176\u5b83\u5b63\u98ce\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b63\u98ce\u73af\u6d41\u7684\u6270\u52a8\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u5b63\u98ce\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u8bf4\u660e\u5b63\u98ce\u5e76\u4e0d\u90fd\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4f1a\u5728\u5404\u5f02\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u8fdc\u7a0b\u6548\u5e94\u4e0b\u53d8\u5f97\u9ad8\u5ea6\u590d\u6742\uff08\u8fdc\u7a0b\u6548\u5e94\u5373\u9065\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u6307\u4ee3\u4e0d\u76f8\u90bb\u5730\u7406\u533a\u57df\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff09\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u53d7\u5230\u5b63\u98ce\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5b63\u98ce\u5982\u4f55\u5f62\u6210\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b63\u98ce\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u964d\u6c34\u96c6\u4e2d\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5e72\u6e7f\u5b63\u7684\u5212\u5206\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u5b63\u98ce\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0b\u4f1a\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5730\u5f62\u3001\u5730\u8c8c\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u533a\u57df\u6027\u6216\u5168\u7403\u6027\u9065\u76f8\u5173\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u5982\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa-\u5357\u65b9\u6d9b\u52a8\u73b0\u8c61\uff0cENSO\uff09\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u53d7\u5230\u5b63\u98ce\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5404\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u57df\u4e2d\u6240\u5171\u6709\u7684\u6700\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u73b0\u8c61\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u70ed\u5e26\u8f90\u5408\u5e26\uff08Intertropical Convergence Zone\uff0cITCZ\uff09\u3002ITCZ\u662f\u56f4\u7ed5\u8d64\u9053\u7684\u4f4e\u6c14\u538b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6240\u5f62\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u80fd\u4e3a\u8d64\u9053\u5730\u533a\u5e26\u6765\u6301\u7eed\u4e0d\u65ad\u65f6\u800c\u731b\u70c8\u7684\u964d\u6c34\uff0c\u800c\u5b83\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u4e0e\u54c8\u5fb7\u5229\u73af\u6d41\u5708\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u652f\u6d41\u6709\u5173\u3002\u54c8\u5fb7\u5229\u73af\u6d41\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u8d64\u9053\u7a7a\u6c14\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u5bf9\u6d41\u5c42\u540e\u5411\u9ad8\u7eac\u5ea6\u6d41\u52a8\uff0c\u5728\u89d2\u52a8\u91cf\u5b88\u6052\u548c\u79d1\u91cc\u5965\u5229\u529b\uff08\u56e0\u5730\u7403\u81ea\u8f6c\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u529b\uff09\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0b\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u4e1c\u98ce\u6c14\u6d41\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u5bfc\u81f4\u526f\u70ed\u5e26\u6025\u6d41\u3002\u63a5\u7740\u8fd9\u4e00\u5927\u56e2\u7a7a\u6c14\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3\u8fd1\u5730\u9762\u540e\u53c8\u4ee5\u897f\u98ce\u6c14\u6d41\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\uff08\u4ecd\u662f\u5728\u79d1\u91cc\u5965\u5229\u529b\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0b\uff09\u8fd4\u56de\u8d64\u9053\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u98ce\u201d\uff0c\u81f3\u6b64\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c14\u6d41\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u5c31\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u4f55\u4ee5\u89c1\u5f97\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u5462\uff1f\u5168\u5e74\u4e2dITCZ\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u9759\u6b62\u6052\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u5411\u5357\u6216\u5317\u8d8a\u8fc7\u8d64\u9053\u53d1\u751f\u5e73\u79fb\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u57286-9\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u5357\u4e9a\u6b21\u5927\u9646\u6b63\u503c\u5b63\u98ce\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6ITCZ\u5728\u5317\u7eac25\u00b0\u9644\u8fd1\uff1b\u800c\u5728\u5357\u534a\u7403\u7684\u590f\u5b63\uff0812-1\u6708\u4efd\uff09\uff0cITCZ\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u5357\u90e8\u548c\u6fb3\u6d32\u5317\u90e8\uff08\u5728\u5357\u7eac25\u00b0\u9644\u8fd1\uff09\u3002\u5728\u6700\u7b80\u5316\u7684\u6c14\u8c61\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u5e74\u4e4b\u4e2dITCZ\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5927\u81f4\u4e0e\u70ed\u8d64\u9053\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u70ed\u8d64\u9053\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u73af\u7ed5\u5168\u7403\u7684\u7ebf\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u7ecf\u5708\u4e0a\u8868\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u70b9\uff08\u5373\u63a5\u53d7\u6700\u591a\u5165\u5c04\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u70b9\u3002\u5730\u7403\u662f\u4e2a\u7403\u4f53\uff0c\u6545\u8d64\u9053\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u5165\u5c04\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c\u79bb\u8d64\u9053\u6700\u8fdc\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u53d7\u5230\u5f88\u5c11\u7684\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u662f\u968f\u7740\u592a\u9633\u76f4\u5c04\u70b9\u7684\u79fb\u52a8\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\uff09\u8fde\u63a5\u800c\u6210\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8981\u590d\u6742\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u770b\u770bITCZ\u7684\u56fe\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u5b83\u6781\u5927\u5730\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u5f62\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6240\u4ee5\u5e76\u4e0d\u89c4\u5219\uff08\u89c1\u56fe2\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a0\u00a0<img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-199\" src=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ITCZ_locations_mod-2-300x178.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"646\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ITCZ_locations_mod-2-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ITCZ_locations_mod-2-768x456.png 768w, https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ITCZ_locations_mod-2.png 874w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 646px) 100vw, 646px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u56fe<\/strong><strong>2<\/strong><strong>\uff1a\u5357\u534a\u7403\u590f\u5929\u65f6\uff08<\/strong><strong>12-2<\/strong><strong>\u6708\u4efd\uff09<\/strong><strong>ITCZ<\/strong><strong>\u7684\u6700\u5357\u7aef\uff08\u7d2b\u7ebf\uff09\uff0c\u56fe\u4f8b\u4e3a\u6708\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5047\u5982\u5730\u7403\u662f\u4e2a\u6c34\u7403\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3ITCZ\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5c06\u5750\u843d\u5728\u4e00\u6761\u4e1c\u897f\u5411\u7684\u76f4\u7ebf\u4e0a\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u4ece\u56fe2\u53ef\u77e5\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u800cITCZ\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5927\u6d0b\u65f6\u5176\u8f68\u8ff9\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u8d64\u9053\u800c\u975e\u70ed\u8d64\u9053\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u9646\u5730\u65f6\u5176\u8f68\u8ff9\u6bd4\u8d64\u9053\u66f4\u5357\u504f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5dee\u5f02\u662f\u56e0\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u9646\u5730\u7684\u6bd4\u70ed\u4e0d\u540c\u9020\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u9646\u5730\u6bd4\u6d77\u6d0b\u5347\u6e29\u5feb\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u70ed\u8d64\u9053\u7ecf\u8fc7\u9646\u5730\u7684\u8bdd\u5b83\u4f1a\u6bd4\u6d77\u6d0b\u5347\u6e29\u66f4\u5feb\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6d77\u6d0b\u76f8\u6bd4\u9646\u5730\u5176\u4fdd\u7559\u70ed\u91cf\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u66f4\u5f3a\uff0c\u6e29\u5ea6\u7ef4\u6301\u5f97\u66f4\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7ecf\u8fc7\u6d77\u6d0b\u7684ITCZ\u66f4\u6613\u56fa\u5b9a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8003\u8651\u4e0a\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u6c14\u73b0\u8c61\u548c\u6d0b\u6d41\u73b0\u8c61\u60c5\u51b5\u5c06\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73b0\u8c61\u4f1a\u628a\u70ed\u91cf\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u81f3\u5404\u5730\u3002\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5730\u5f62\u548c\u6d77\u62d4\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4e5f\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9646\u5730\/\u6d0b\u5e95\u7684\u76c6\u5730\u5bf9\u80fd\u6d41\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4e5f\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f71\u54cdITCZ\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u548c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u70ed\u5e26\u5b63\u98ce\u6c14\u5019\u4e2dITCZ\u4f1a\u548c\u56e0\u9646\u5730\u4f4e\u6c14\u538b\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u73b0\u8c61\u53d1\u751f\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u5267\u70c8\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u964d\u6c34\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e4b\u524d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u98ce\u5411\u9006\u8f6c\u4e5f\u662f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u5171\u6709\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff08\u5317\u7f8e\u548c\u5357\u7f8e\u5b63\u98ce\u9664\u5916\uff09\uff0c\u98ce\u5411\u80fd\u591f\u9006\u8f6c\u7ea6140\u00b0\uff0c\u4ece\u51ac\u5b63\u79bb\u5cb8\u7684\u98ce\u53d8\u4e3a\u590f\u5b63\u5411\u5cb8\u7684\u98ce\u3002\u70ed\u8d64\u9053\u4e0b\u6d0b\u9762\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u5165\u5c04\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u4f7f\u5927\u91cf\u6c34\u5206\u84b8\u53d1\u5f62\u6210\u6c14\u56e2\uff0c\u6c14\u56e2\u5411\u5cb8\u6d41\u52a8\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u70ed\u91cf\u5e76\u4e0a\u6d6e\uff08\u70ed\u7a7a\u6c14\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u91ca\u653e\u70ed\u91cf\u5e76\u51dd\u7ed3\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5f62\u6210\u964d\u6c34\u3002\u4f46\u98ce\u5411\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u6210\u56e0\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-202 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/wind_reversal-282x300.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"489\" height=\"520\" \/><\/p>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Figure 3: Simple model showing the simple wind reversal mechanism and varying heat capacities of the land and ocean during the winter and summer leading to the different temperature and thus the resulting pressure differentials and resultant\u00a0wind patterns.\u00a0<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>\u56fe3\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5316\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u9610\u660e\u4e86\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u51ac\u590f\u5b63\u98ce\u5411\u9006\u8f6c\u8fd1140\u00b0\u7684\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u9646\u5730\u7684\u6bd4\u70ed\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u800c\u6bd4\u70ed\u6307\u7684\u662f\u7269\u8d28\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53471\u2103\u6240\u9700\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\uff0c\u9646\u5730\u7684\u6bd4\u70ed\u4f4e\uff0c\u5728\u5165\u5c04\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u4e0b\u5347\u6e29\u5feb\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u7684\u6bd4\u70ed\u76f8\u5bf9\u9ad8\u4e9b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5347\u6e29\u6162\u4e9b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u590f\u5b63\u65f6\u9646\u5730\u8868\u9762\u4f1a\u6bd4\u6d77\u6d0b\u66f4\u6696\uff08\u56fe3\u4e0a\u90e8\uff09\uff1b\u51ac\u5b63\u65f6\u5219\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u70ed\u91cf\uff0c\u6563\u5931\u5f97\u6bd4\u9646\u5730\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6d77\u6d0b\u8981\u6bd4\u9646\u5730\u66f4\u6e29\u6696\u3002\u9646\u5730\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u5dee\u8fdb\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u6c14\u538b\u5dee\uff0c\u800c\u7a7a\u6c14\u603b\u662f\u4ece\u9ad8\u6c14\u538b\u5904\uff08\u51b7\uff09\u6d41\u5411\u4f4e\u6c14\u538b\u5904\uff08\u6696\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u98ce\u5411\u7684\u9006\u8f6c\u3002\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u80fd\u591f\u5f71\u54cd\u6c14\u6d41\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5728\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u7684\u5b63\u98ce\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\uff0c\u9752\u85cf\u9ad8\u539f\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6d77\u6d0b\u8f93\u9001\u5230\u9646\u5730\u7684\u6c34\u6c7d\u901a\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u9752\u85cf\u9ad8\u539f\u8fd9\u4e00\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5730\u7406\u5c4f\u969c\u7684\u6d77\u62d4\u592a\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5176\u5468\u8fb9\u6c14\u56e2\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u60ac\u6b8a\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u68af\u5ea6\u548c\u538b\u529b\u68af\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u6574\u4e2a\u5b63\u98ce\u73af\u6d41\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u5411\u5cb8\u7684\u6c34\u6c7d\u901a\u91cf\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5c71\u8109\u4e5f\u8d77\u5230\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u963b\u6321\u4e86\u6765\u81ea\u5370\u5ea6\u6b21\u5927\u9646\u6ee1\u8f7d\u6c34\u6c7d\u7684\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u56e2\u5317\u5411\u6df1\u5165\u5e72\u71e5\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u5927\u9646\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5c71\u8109\u80cc\u98ce\u9762\u6c14\u5019\u5e72\u71e5\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5404\u79cd\u5927\u6c14\u6025\u6d41\uff08\u5982\u526f\u70ed\u5e26\u6025\u6d41\u3001\u70ed\u5e26\u4e1c\u98ce\u6025\u6d41\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u4e1c\u98ce\u6025\u6d41\u3001\u7d22\u9a6c\u91cc\u6025\u6d41\u7b49\uff09\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u5f71\u54cd\u5b63\u98ce\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6025\u6d41\u662f\u7531\u5404\u79cd\u533a\u57df\u6027\u6216\u5168\u7403\u6027\u7684\u6c14\u6d41\u548c\u6d0b\u6d41\u4e92\u76f8\u4f5c\u7528\u5f62\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u4e0e\u5b63\u98ce\u7cfb\u7edf\u672c\u8eab\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u6c14\u6025\u6d41\u7684\u6270\u52a8\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u5b63\u98ce\uff08\u5b63\u8282\u5185\u7684\u3001\u5e74\u95f4\u7684\u548c\u5341\u5e74\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5f3a\u7684\u70ed\u5e26\u4e1c\u98ce\u6025\u6d41\uff08Tropical Easterly Jet\uff0cTEJ\uff09\u4e0e\u5f3a\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u5b63\u98ce\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5176\u5b9e\u8fdc\u6bd4\u8fd9\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u79f0\u5f31\u7684\u70ed\u5e26\u4e1c\u98ce\u6025\u6d41\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f31\u4e1c\u98ce\u5782\u76f4\u5207\u53d8\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u5f3a\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u7684\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u603b\u4f53\u6765\u770b\u5b63\u98ce\u662f\u53d8\u5f31\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u98ce\u66b4\u6d3b\u52a8\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u526f\u70ed\u5e26\u6025\u6d41\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u6025\u6d41\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e9a\u6d32\u5b63\u98ce\u7cfb\u7edf\u800c\u8a00\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u4e2d\u5c42\u6c14\u65cb\u7684\u897f\u98ce\u73af\u6d41\u7531\u4e8e\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u7684\u9ad8\u6d77\u62d4\u88ab\u9650\u5236\u5728\u5176\u5357\u8fb9\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5728\u5b63\u98ce\u5b63\u8282\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6025\u6d41\u5317\u4e0a\u8d8a\u8fc7\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\uff0c\u5373\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u56e2\u5f80\u66f4\u5317\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u8f93\u9001\uff0c\u8fd9\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u5370\u5ea6\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u5b63\u98ce\u5b63\u8282\u3002\u5176\u539f\u7406\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u9752\u85cf\u9ad8\u539f\u5347\u6e29\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4f4e\u6c14\u538b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5c06\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u56e2\u62c9\u8fc7\u4e86\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9065\u76f8\u5173\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e24\u5730\u867d\u6709\u5343\u91cc\u4e4b\u9065\uff0c\u4e00\u5904\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u5374\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u5904\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5927\u6c14\u5c31\u662f\u7ef4\u7cfb\u4e24\u5730\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u5982\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5927\u6c14\u51c6\u5b9a\u5e38\u7f57\u65af\u6bd4\u6ce2\uff08Rossby wave\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u5927\u6c14\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u70ed\u6216\u66f4\u6e7f\uff0c\u800c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ce2\u957f\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u4e0b\u6e38\u5904\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5e72\u6216\u66f4\u51b7\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u5076\u6781\u5b50\uff08Indian Ocean dipole, IOD\uff09&#8212;\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u5076\u6781\u5b50\u5305\u62ec\u6d77\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u975e\u5468\u671f\u632f\u52a8\uff0c\u6709\u6b63\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u8d1f\u4e09\u79cdIOD\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u6b63IOD\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u897f\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6d77\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6\u548c\u964d\u6c34\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u4e1c\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u533a\u57df\u6d77\u6c34\u6e29\u5ea6\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u590f\u5929\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6b63IOD\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u901a\u8fc7\u6b21\u8868\u9762\u5076\u6781\u5b50\u7279\u5f81\u4f20\u9012\uff09\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5357\u4e9a\u9ad8\u538b\u589e\u5f3a\u3001\u5176\u4e1c\u90e8\u810a\u7ebf\u5411\u4e1c\u5ef6\u4f38\u3001\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u526f\u70ed\u5e26\u9ad8\u538b\u589e\u5f3a\u5e76\u897f\u5411\u5ef6\u4f38\uff0c\u5b63\u98ce\u7ee7\u800c\u51cf\u5f31\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa-\u5357\u65b9\u6d9b\u52a8\uff08El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation\uff0cENSO\uff09&#8212;\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u4e2d\u70ed\u5e26\u4e1c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7684\u6d77\u6c34\u8868\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6\u53cd\u5e38\u5730\u9ad8\uff0c\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7684\u5bf9\u6d41\u79fb\u52a8\u5230\u4e2d\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u548c\u4e1c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\uff0c\u63a5\u7740\u6291\u5236\u4e86\u4e9a\u6d32\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u57df\u548c\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6696\u6c60\u533a\u57df\u7684\u5bf9\u6d41\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5b63\u98ce\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u56e0\u8fc7\u53bb30\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u800c\u5ef6\u7f13\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u6307\u51fa\u6e29\u5ba4\u6548\u5e94\u5207\u65ad\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u6c83\u514b\u73af\u6d41\uff08the Indian Walker circulation\uff09\u548cENSO\uff08\u975e\u4e1c\u4e9a\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u51ac\u6625\u5b63\u53d8\u6696\uff0c\u4e9a\u6d32\u5185\u9646\u79ef\u96ea\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6d77\u9646\u6e29\u5dee\u589e\u5927\uff0c\u5b63\u98ce\u73af\u6d41\u62b5\u6d88\u4e86\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6e29\u5ba4\u4e0b\u7684ENSO\u4f1a\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\u5c1a\u672a\u6709\u5b9a\u8bba\u3002\u4e5f\u8bb8\u53e4\u6c14\u5019\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u80fd\u591f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e9b\u601d\u8def\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5317\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6d9b\u52a8\uff08North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO\uff09&#8212;\u5317\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u98ce\u66b4\u8def\u5f84\u548cNAO\u6307\u6570\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u987a\u53d8\u6270\u52a8\u6d3b\u52a8\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u4e1c\u4e9a\u4e1c\u5317\u90e8\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u6c14\u538b\u5f02\u5e38\u3002\u5728\u8d1fNAO\u6307\u6570\u7684\u5e74\u4efd\uff0c\u5357NAO\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6240\u5728\u7684\u4ece\u6b27\u6d32\u897f\u5317\u90e8\u81f3\u4e1c\u4e9a\u4e1c\u5317\u90e8\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u9a7b\u6ce2\u56fe\u6848\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5728\u6b63NAO\u6307\u6570\u7684\u5e74\u4efd\uff0c\u9a7b\u6ce2\u56fe\u6848\u4eceNAO\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5ef6\u4f38\u7a7f\u8fc7\u4e9a\u6d32\u5927\u9646\u4e2d\u90e8\u81f3\u5927\u9646\u4e1c\u5357\u90e8\uff0c\u7ea6\u5317\u7eac40\u00b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u6b63NAO\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u90e8\u3001\u4e1c\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fc7\u53bb20\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u5317\u90e8\u3001\u4e1c\u5317\u90e8\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u9065\u76f8\u5173\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u5b63\u98ce\u7cfb\u7edf\u76f8\u5173\u673a\u5236\u4ecd\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u672a\u89e3\u4e4b\u8c1c\u3002\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u8fd8\u9700\u5728\u6280\u672f\u4e0a\u63d0\u9ad8\u4fe1\u566a\u6bd4\u4ee5\u671f\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u89c2\u6d4b\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u4efb\u91cd\u800c\u9053\u8fdc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5b63\u98ce\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5b63\u98ce\u672a\u6765\u5c06\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u53d8\u5316\u5e45\u5ea6\u6709\u591a\u5927\u3001\u4f55\u79cd\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u66f4\u9002\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u5927\u5bb6\u70ed\u8bae\u7684\u7126\u70b9\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u590d\u6742\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u70ed\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4e92\u4f5c\uff0c\u5728\u6e29\u5ba4\u6548\u5e94\u4e0b\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9065\u76f8\u5173\u7b49\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u533a\u57df\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5171\u6027\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u8868\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6(Sea Surface Temperatures\uff0cSST)\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u4e0e\u90bb\u8fd1\u9646\u5730\u8868\u9762\u7684\u7ecf\u5411\u6e29\u5ea6\u68af\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u4ece\u6d77\u6d0b\u4e2d\u84b8\u53d1\u7684\u6c34\u5206\u4ece\u5f3a\u5316\u7684\u5b63\u98ce\u73af\u6d41\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u901a\u91cf\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5927\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u9ad8\u7eac\u5ea6\u5730\u533a\u6bd4\u4f4e\u7eac\u5ea6\u5730\u533a\u5347\u6e29\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u6781\u5730\u81f3\u8d64\u9053\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u68af\u5ea6\u53d8\u5c0f\uff0c\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u800c\u5357\u5317\u534a\u7403\u4e4b\u95f4\u5347\u6e29\u901f\u7387\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u53c8\u80fd\u589e\u5f3a\u54c8\u5fb7\u5229\u73af\u6d41\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u5b63\u98ce\u73af\u6d41\uff0c\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>IPCC\u62a5\u544a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u5927\u4f53\u964d\u6c34\u5c06\u63d0\u9ad85-10%\uff08\u56fe4\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u540c\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u57df\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5982\u975e\u6d32\u3001\u5357\u7f8e\u6d32\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u4e0a\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5171\u6027\u5f88\u5c11\uff08\u56fe5\u7684\u767d\u8272\u533a\u57df\uff09\uff0c\u7a7a\u95f4\u76f8\u5e72\u6027\u4e5f\u5f88\u5c11\uff08\u5982\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-241 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/AR4-precipitation-uncertainty-300x101.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"751\" height=\"253\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/AR4-precipitation-uncertainty-300x101.png 300w, https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/AR4-precipitation-uncertainty.png 700w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 751px) 100vw, 751px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u56fe<\/strong><strong>5<\/strong><strong>\uff1a<\/strong><strong>IPCC<\/strong><strong>\u62a5\u544a\uff0c<\/strong><strong>2090-2099<\/strong><strong>\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e<\/strong><strong>1980-1999<\/strong><strong>\u7684\u964d\u6c34\u76f8\u5bf9\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff09\u3002\u6570\u503c\u6765\u81ea\u591a\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u7efc\u5408\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5de6\u4e3a<\/strong><strong>12<\/strong><strong>\u6708<\/strong><strong>-2<\/strong><strong>\u6708\uff0c\u53f3\u4e3a<\/strong><strong>6<\/strong><strong>\u6708<\/strong><strong>-8<\/strong><strong>\u6708\u3002\u767d\u8272\u533a\u57df\u6307\u5c11\u4e8e<\/strong><strong>66%<\/strong><strong>\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u6253\u70b9\u533a\u57df\u6307\u591a\u4f59<\/strong><strong>90%<\/strong><strong>\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u5404\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u80fd\u6b63\u786e\u8bc4\u4f30\u5b63\u98ce\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u5f97\u5c24\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u968f\u7740\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff08\u56fe6\uff09\uff0c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u503c\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u4e5f\u5728\u9010\u6e10\u7f29\u5c0f\uff0c\u8fde\u5404\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e5f\u5904\u5728\u7efc\u5408\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6539\u826f\u548c\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u56fe6\u6253\u70b9\u533a\u57df\u5c06\u4e0d\u518d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u5728\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-245 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/AR5-precipitation-uncertainty-1-300x246.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"737\" height=\"604\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/AR5-precipitation-uncertainty-1-300x246.gif 300w, https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/AR5-precipitation-uncertainty-1-768x630.gif 768w, https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/AR5-precipitation-uncertainty-1-1024x840.gif 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 737px) 100vw, 737px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u56fe<\/strong><strong>6<\/strong><strong>\uff1a\u663e\u793a\u6b64\u7efc\u5408\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5728<\/strong><strong>RCP8.5<\/strong><strong>\u4e0b<\/strong><strong>2045-2065<\/strong><strong>\u3001<\/strong><strong>2081-2100<\/strong><strong>\u3001<\/strong><strong>2181-2200<\/strong><strong>\u8fd9\u4e09\u6bb5\u65f6\u671f\u4e0e\u57fa\u51c6\u671f<\/strong><strong>1986-2005<\/strong><strong>\u76f8\u6bd4\u5b63\u8282\u5e73\u5747\u964d\u6c34\u53d8\u5316\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u3002\u9634\u5f71\u8868\u793a\u5e73\u5747\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u5728\u5c0f\u4e8e\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u6253\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u5e73\u5747\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u5927\u4e8e\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6709<\/strong><strong>90%<\/strong><strong>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5f97\u51fa\u6b64\u4e00\u81f4\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5bf9\u5b63\u98ce\u7684\u957f\u671f\u89c2\u6d4b\u4ecd\u662f\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4ece\u5168\u7403\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\u5e38\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u8de8\u6d0b\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u3002\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5b63\u98ce\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u5176\u53d8\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u8d8b\u4e8e\u51cf\u5c11\u7684\uff0c\u76f4\u81f31980\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\u800c\u540e\u9010\u6e10\u589e\u591a\uff0c\u5b63\u98ce\u7684\u591a\u53d8\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5e74\u4ee3\u9645\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u6216\u89c2\u6d4b\u8bb0\u5f55\u65f6\u7a7a\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7f3a\u4e4f\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u548c\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5b63\u98ce\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u53e4\u6c14\u5019\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u53e4\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u5b63\u98ce\u7684\u957f\u671f\u8868\u73b0\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6bd4\u73b0\u5728\u6696\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4e0a\u65b0\u4e16\u5c31\u5b58\u5728\u6696\u671f\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53e4\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e\u80fd\u591f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u672a\u6765\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\u7136\u800c\u96be\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u4ee3\u7528\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7f3a\u4e4f\uff0c\u5e74\u4ee3\u8d8a\u4e45\u8fdc\uff0c\u6240\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5c31\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u4fe1\u53f7\u66f4\u8d8b\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0\u5168\u7403\u6027\u7684\u6c14\u5019\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5173\u4e4e\u5b63\u98ce\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u65f6\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4e0d\u540c\u677f\u5757\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u548c\u78b0\u649e\u901f\u7387\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5927\u9646\u7684\u6784\u9020\u4e5f\u6709\u5dee\u5f02\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u5730\u5f62\u62ac\u5347\u901f\u7387\u548c\u98ce\u5316\u901f\u7387&#8212;\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5c71\u548c\u9752\u85cf\u9ad8\u539f\u7684\u9ad8\u6d77\u62d4\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u5b63\u98ce\u548c\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u5b63\u98ce\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u6f14\u5316\u8d77\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u6d77\u9053\u7684\u5f00\u5408&#8212;\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u6d0b\u6d41\u7684\u8d70\u5411\u548c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5bf9\u5c40\u90e8\u5b63\u98ce\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u5b63\u98ce\u7cfb\u7edf\uff09\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6&#8212;\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u4e2d\u91cd\u8981\u7ec4\u6210\u6c14\u4f53\uff0c\u5982\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\uff0c\u5176\u542b\u91cf\u5df2\u7ecf\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5730\uff08\u5982\u514b\u52b3\u4fee\u65af\uff0d \u514b\u62c9\u73c0\u9f99\u65b9\u7a0b\uff08Clausius-Clapeyron\uff09\uff09\u6216\u95f4\u63a5\u5730\uff08\u6d0b\u6d41\u53ca\u6c14\u6d41\u8f93\u9001\u7684\u8c03\u6574\uff09\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u5b63\u98ce\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u51b0\u96ea\u8986\u76d6\u7387\uff1a\u5357\u5317\u534a\u7403\u7684\u51b0\u76d6\u5e76\u975e\u603b\u662f\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u76843500\u4e07\u5e74\u4e2d\u53cd\u590d\u6269\u5f20\u53c8\u8870\u9000\u3002\u51b0\u76d6\u53ef\u4ee5\u8c03\u8282\u5c40\u90e8\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7684\u6c14\u6e29\u548c\u6d77\u6e29\uff0c\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u5b63\u98ce\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u690d\u88ab\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u53cd\u9988&#8212;\u690d\u7269\u7ecf\u8fc7\u957f\u5e74\u6f14\u5316\uff0c\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u7c7b\u7fa4\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u6709\u7740\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u690d\u7269\u4e0d\u4ec5\u80fd\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4f5c\u51fa\u76f8\u5e94\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u8d77\u5230\u8c03\u8282\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5730\u9762-\u5927\u6c14\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u95f4\u63a5\u5bf9\u5b63\u98ce\u8d77\u8c03\u8282\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk\/people\/alex-farnsworth-2\/\">Dr. Alex Farnsworth<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u7ffb\u8bd1: \u738b\u817e\u7fd4<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u4e2d\u5b63\u98ce\u8fd9\u4e2a\u540d\u8bcd\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u4e8e\u70ed\u5e26\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5904\u5728\u70ed\u5e26\u548c\u4e9a\u70ed\u5e26\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d7\u5b63\u98ce\u5b63\u8282\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u5f71\u54cd\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bef\u89e3\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b63\u98ce\u603b\u662f\u548c\u5267\u70c8\u800c\u53c8\u7a81\u5982\u5176\u6765\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b63\u98ce\u6307\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5168\u5e74\u6216\u5168\u5e74\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u964d\u6c34\u96c6\u4e2d\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\uff08\u6709\u65f6\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\uff09\u5b63\u8282\u5185\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0e\u4ee5\u524d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7684\u98ce\u5411\u9006\u8f6c\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u540e\u9762\u4f1a\u63d0\u5230\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fc7\u4e86\u5b63\u98ce\u5b63\u8282\uff0c\u964d\u96e8\u5c06\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u5e72\u71e5\u3002\u5b63\u98ce\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u8bed\u201cmausim\u201d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5b63\u8282\u7684\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5b63\u98ce\u6027\u964d\u96e8\u6709\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u3002 &nbsp; \u201c\u5728\u70ed\u5e26\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u572821\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u4e9a\u6d32\u5b63\u98ce\u548c\u897f\u975e\u5b63\u98ce\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u964d\u6c34\u662f\u589e\u52a0\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u590f\u5b63\u5317\u90e8Sahel\u5730\u533a\u5219\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u7684(Cook and Vizy, 2006)\u3002\u201d &nbsp; \u4eba\u4eec\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bef\u89e3\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b63\u98ce\u5b63\u8282\u53ea\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5317\u534a\u7403\uff086-9\u6708\uff09\u548c\u5357\u534a\u7403\uff0811-2\u6708\uff09\u7684\u590f\u5b63\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\u5b63\u98ce\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u51ac\u5b63\u98ce\uff0c\u51ac\u5b63\u98ce\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5730\u533a\u4e0e\u590f\u5b63\u98ce\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002 \u56fe1\uff1a\u5728\u5b63\u98ce\u5b63\u8282\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u964d\u6c34\u5360\u5168\u5e74\u81f3\u5c1170%\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002\u63cf\u7ed8\u5b63\u98ce\u5f71\u54cd\u533a\u57df\u7684\u793a\u610f\u56fe\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\uff0c\u5c1a\u672a\u6709\u5b9a\u8bba\uff0c\u8be5\u56fe\u4e3a\u5176\u4e00\u3002\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81eaGPCP\u7248\u672c2.5\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u81ea1970-2008\uff0c\u7531P.Dirmeyer\u63d0\u4f9b\u3002 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&nbsp; &nbsp; \u5b63\u98ce\u5982\u4f55\u5f62\u6210\uff1f \u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b63\u98ce\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u964d\u6c34\u96c6\u4e2d\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5e72\u6e7f\u5b63\u7684\u5212\u5206\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u5b63\u98ce\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0b\u4f1a\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5730\u5f62\u3001\u5730\u8c8c\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u533a\u57df\u6027\u6216\u5168\u7403\u6027\u9065\u76f8\u5173\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u5982\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa-\u5357\u65b9\u6d9b\u52a8\u73b0\u8c61\uff0cENSO\uff09\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u53d7\u5230\u5b63\u98ce\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u540c\u3002 \u5404\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u57df\u4e2d\u6240\u5171\u6709\u7684\u6700\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u73b0\u8c61\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u70ed\u5e26\u8f90\u5408\u5e26\uff08Intertropical Convergence 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\u4e4b\u524d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u98ce\u5411\u9006\u8f6c\u4e5f\u662f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5b63\u98ce\u533a\u5171\u6709\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff08\u5317\u7f8e\u548c\u5357\u7f8e\u5b63\u98ce\u9664\u5916\uff09\uff0c\u98ce\u5411\u80fd\u591f\u9006\u8f6c\u7ea6140\u00b0\uff0c\u4ece\u51ac\u5b63\u79bb\u5cb8\u7684\u98ce\u53d8\u4e3a\u590f\u5b63\u5411\u5cb8\u7684\u98ce\u3002\u70ed\u8d64\u9053\u4e0b\u6d0b\u9762\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u5165\u5c04\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u4f7f\u5927\u91cf\u6c34\u5206\u84b8\u53d1\u5f62\u6210\u6c14\u56e2\uff0c\u6c14\u56e2\u5411\u5cb8\u6d41\u52a8\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u70ed\u91cf\u5e76\u4e0a\u6d6e\uff08\u70ed\u7a7a\u6c14\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u91ca\u653e\u70ed\u91cf\u5e76\u51dd\u7ed3\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5f62\u6210\u964d\u6c34\u3002\u4f46\u98ce\u5411\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u6210\u56e0\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f Figure 3: Simple model showing the simple wind reversal mechanism and varying heat capacities of the land and ocean during the winter and summer leading to the 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